RE: RE: RE: RE: Liquidity Event Kinghamhill,
You seem like very confident and the type that can't be swayed no matter what. I can already sense that you are not very interested in hearing a lot of the negative side of this stock because you will find a way to brush it off as "chicken little syndrome" or cherrypick which facts you wish to behold as actual facts. I am just going to tell you to be careful with this one and here is why...
I don't know how long you have been following this stock (you weren't around when it was hovering around $3.25). At this point though, everyone was having a lot of fun, me included, posting snippets from Poseidon's IR, there were a lot of comments that were focused on the 9.5million in receivables (even if they only recoup 40% of that 9.5million etc.) There were several attempts by very credible people to peg a dollar value to this company based on utillization rates that were supposedly near 100%.
December 27th comes along, and not only did the 9.5 million in receivables not decrease by 50%, it actually increased by 119 million! There were major shakeups in very high positions...January 11th comes around, more shakeups, a predeclared dividend gets clawed back etc.
I was a believer myself until the last few days, I am glad I sold at the open on Friday because things are beginning to look very suspicious with a lot of very erratic behaviour on their end. I am not shorting them, but I am no longer confident about the direction this company is heading. How could the AR get to 128 million when annual revenue isn't really that much higher, does something not seem a bit off to you? There is no way to attach a value to this company at this point because there are too many unknowns, post your calculation for the value of this company moving forward and count the number of assumptions you have to make that push an optimistic outlook on all of these estimates, try putting in the worst case scenario as well.
The problem I have with this company is really more related to how all of this odd information fits together...because it doesn't. It paints the picture of a company that was desperate to make up thinning margins by adding new clients and pushing growth at a time when the broader market was contracting.
My only point after all this is as follows, put Poseidon in your portfolio but at least be honest with yourself and look at it from the proper perspective which is as follows: Adding PSN will increase the variance of your overall portfolio, it is a speculative risk play that could may very well pay off, and it may not. The overall proportion of your portfolio that you are willing to dedicate to PSN will also be a factor in how large the variance may turn out to be. If you are comfortable with these terms, great, but I wouldn't be telling everyone else here as well as your friends and family that this is the next "sure thing", no way you can lose, easy triple bagger on the way and putting anything more than 4% on the line. You are gambling with unknown information and don't be using your calculations to sway impressionable people into averaging down all in to make up for all of their previous losses.