AvenEx Energy Corp AVNDF

RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Avf

[tulsatea]

Upon closing, Spyglass will implement a monthly dividend of $0.03 per share with a dividend payout of 35% to 40% of cash flow (approximately $46 million annual dividend) and a target all-in payout ratio (including $80 to $90 million of sustaining capital expenditures) of approximately 100% of cash flow[from the press release]

For the third quarter of 2012[ending Sept. 30]: Pace had cash flow of 14 million---Charger had cash flow of 2 million---AVF upstream division had cash flow of 4.5 million[go to the quarterly reports]  This implies yearly cash flow of 82 million for 2013 according to the third quarter reports for the three merged companies.

However, Buchanan estimates cash flow of 126 million to 136 million for 2013 in his pro-forma analysis for the three merged companies. A very optimistic projection. Combine this with debt of $280 million dollars and Spyglass is off to a very shaky start.