STAB AT Q4 NUMBERS Can someone help me out here?
I reviewed the latest presentation which was updated on January 21 ( This is the 3rd version of the January presentation) On page 11 the company shows actual the netbacks they received in November.
Now they only showed the netbacks for the Montney, Viking, heavy oil and Boyer. The total BOE/d is 12700 mostly oil.
Now if I extrapolate these numbers over all their revenue I added 1800 additional Liquids and 8500BOE/D of nat gas. ( As they stated 23000boe/d with 50/50 split oil vs Natgas) I make the assumption that the netback for additional liquids is $22.73 (Same as what they received for the heavy oil) and $11.00 /BOE for the additional gas.
This would give a total netback of :
$205111/d for Montney
$191600/d for Viking
$ 23866/d Heavy Oil
$ 33000/d Boyer gas
Assuming an additional 8500BOE of gas would add another: $93500/d
Assuming an additional 1700BOE liquids could add another: $38641/d
All these numbers added together would give them a daily netback of: $585718/d
Let’s assume that we this averages over the quarter then the CF should be: 90x$585718=$52.7M
That equates to 52.7/126=$0.418/share for the quarter.
HAVE I MISSED ANYTHING?
I realize there are additional administration costs for the merger etc. but never the less the numbers are looking pretty good.
It will be interesting what the Q1 2013 numbers will be as this will be the first full qtr for Long Run.