Latest News Results in Huge Manipulation of SP
Huge Mark of Validation with Veolia Deal
EVENT – Partnership to be created with Veolia on Red Mud Plant
This morning, Orbite and Veolia Environmental Services signed an exclusive
worldwide collaborative agreement for the treatment and recycling of red mud
generated by industrial alumina production using the Bayer process.
IMPACT– Getting Closer to the Technology ‘Holy Grail’: Royalties
More background on the collaborative agreement: Under the agreement, a
demonstration plant will be built and operated by Veolia. Site selection and capacity for the demonstration plant will be determined by the end of summer, and the construction timeline will be determined thereafter. Final terms of the agreement are yet to be determined, but the intention is that Orbite would secure royalties on the red mud remediation plants. Typical to most licensing arrangements, Orbite may also receive an equity interest in a JV that would own the remediation plant, and may also receive an up-front cash payment as each plant JV is setup. It remains to bedetermined what the economic arrangement relating to Orbite’s involvement with the demonstration plant, but we believe the Company will accrue revenue as the demonstration plant is built and/or operated.
Veolia’s strategic rationale: The strategic rationale for Veolia is clear. As a
consolidated entity, it generates over 30 billion euros per year in revenue, employs 330,000 people globally, and is considered a leader worldwide in waste
management. Veolia’s website indicates that increasing its activities in industrial
waste management is a top priority, and in particular the recovery and recycling of
material resources from waste stockpiles.
What it means for Orbite: The Veolia agreement is clearly a huge mark of validation for Orbite. On the subsequent pages of this note, we have calculated possibleeconomic outcomes for Orbite under potential licensing arrangements.
At the low end, single licenses could be worth as low as $0.16/sh per plant. However, a successful red mud royalty portfolio could have an NPV of $28/sh or much more in an aggressive rollout by Veolia (see page 6). At the current time, we do not include any contribution from red mud remediation in our $9 NAV based target price. ACTION – Maintain Spec. Buy Rating and $9.00 Target
Today’s agreement with Veolia strengthens the investment thesis on Orbite.
NPV of SINGLE RED MUD PLANT to the plant’s joint venture owners
After Tax IRR 35%
Capex -$370,000,000
Equity $185,000,000
Loan -$185,000,000
NPV $565,154,372
Discount rate 10%
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Euro Pacific Canada
5 February 2013 www.europac.ca
Luisa Moreno, PhD
416-933-3352
luisa.moreno@europac.ca
ORBITE ALUMINAE
TSX:ORT;OTCQX:EORBF:$2.66 — SPECULATIVE BUY
12 MONTH TARGET PRICE : $8.00 | PROJECTED RETURN: 201%
French Connection
EVENT
Orbite Aluminae Inc. (TSX:ORT; OTCQX:EORBF) and the French-based
environmental services company, Veolia Environmental Services (a division of Veolia Environnement Ve SA [NYSE Euronext: VIE; NYSE: VE]), signed a partnership agreement to recycle and remediate red mud around the world.
DETAILS — A Strong Vote of Confidence
? An exclusive worldwide collaborative agreement: If Veolia satisfies the
initial objectives and milestones of the agreement (e.g., identify a red mud
site for the first plant, secure financing), it will receive the exclusive global
license for the Orbite process for the treatment and recycling of red mud
from the Bayer process.
The partnership includes the construction of the first plant for the
treatment of red mud using the Orbite process: As per the agreement, a
demonstration plant will be built first; if successful, Veolia will secure a
worldwide license for the processing of red mud only. Veolia will also be the
operator of the plants while Orbite will offer technology support.
Economic details of the agreement have not been disclosed: Veolia will
likely own all the by-products from the remediation process (e.g., alumina,
iron, rare earths, etc.). Orbite will receive a royalty from the plant that we
estimate could be 5–10% of revenue, which will include the sale of byproducts.
This could significantly boost Orbite’s income ahead of the
commercial production of its first smelter-grade alumina.
Veolia will be responsible for the financing: Veolia will be responsible for
100% of the financing of the remediation plants. The company will also
assume most of benefits once the technology is established, by collecting
most of the revenue.
ACTION — Significant Validation; BUY
This agreement is a significant vote of confidence in the Orbite process. The
company’s revenue from licensing could augment significantly, while it focuses on
the development of its alumina refinery business. We maintain our $8.00 target
price and Speculative Buy recommendation.
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This deal is HUMONGOUS. Without spending a buck ORBITE will collect countless dollars from Royalties.
Yet Banks and Brokerage houses continue to manipulate ORBITE's SP as if ORBITE is invisible. WAKE UP
IIROC !!!! Where is the AMF NOW !!!! ORBITE WILL HOWEVER OVERCOME. WAIT AND SEE! I continue
to gladly ACCUMULATE at these incredibly undervalued prices. GLTA