RE: BB For sure the low EV and solid cash flow (>.40) has to look attractive both for the Red Earth play and the cash. Timing would be good as the waterflood has not shown in results, but the water floods could easily add 1,500 bpd for $7 million, those barrels of high net back oil should add takeout value at at least $105,000/barrel or $150,000,000 to EV once they are fully operational - that's 60 cents per share not recognised in current PPS or production.
Valuing 2013 exit of 6000bpd at $105,000/bbl comes to an EV of $630 million, less $130 million debt, gives a fair takeover of $500 million or $2 per share, assuming 1/3 of waterflood production is in the 6000 there is still an additional .40 for waterflood not recognised. Total takeover value of $2.40.
Management owns in excess of 20% so any unfriendly offer would have to be sweet. Given the insider buy on Feb. 7 there is no offer on the table, so at this point the action you are concerned about would be pre-positioning.
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