Moly Info Supply report Found this info - Looks bad for short term but gets good around we may startup. JPH
With global molybdenum production due to increase, and a slowdown in demand on the horizon, prices are set to fall in 2013, according to commodities economist Ross Strachan at UK-based Capital Economics.
Stronger than expected 2013 economic growth in China - the world's biggest consumer of the steelmaking input - could be positive for molybdenum prices, but Strachan cautions against assuming such a correlation.
If Chinese growth is not domestically driven, it would "merely displace an order from a manufacturer elsewhere and this will have no net effect on prices," Strachan told BNamericas, adding that China's shift away from commodity-intensive growth and the world's "ample" spare molybdenum capacity would offset any upward pressure on prices.
Strachan forecasts that prices will slip to US$9.50/lb by end-2013. The London Metal Exchange price has averaged US$12.84/lb in 2012 to-date, down from its average of US$15.59/lb in 2011.
COCHILCO'S VIEW
Chilean copper commission Cochilco has published a new study into the global molybdenum market, estimating a more bullish end-2013 price level of US$15/lb as demand starts to grow faster than supply.
Even so, the molybdenum market will show respective surpluses for 2012 and 2013 of 10,400t - 6% higher than the 2011 surplus - and 9,500t, Cochilco said.
On the demand side, "risks persist" in Europe despite EU efforts to mitigate the impacts of sovereign debt woes and the overall weakness of the financial system. Combined with a growth slowdown in China and weak growth in the US and Japan, the outlook for global moly demand growth for 2012 and 2013 is 3% and 6%, respectively, Cochilco said.
Cochilco projects global refined molybdenum output of 283,000t and 299,000t in 2012 and 2013, respectively, or increases of 4.1% and 5.5%.
The main supply increase in 2012 would come from primary production in China, while in 2013 Cochilco predicts the main supply increases will come from Codelco's copper mines in Chile and Grupo México's (BMV: GMEXICOB) in Mexico.
Chilean output is due to drop 11% in 2012 to 36,400t due to big decreases at miners like Codelco, (-17.4%) and Collahuasi (- 47%) due to lower grades and copper production. Chilean molybdenum production is due to rebound in 2013 to 42,600t, a 17% increase over the 2012 forecast, according to Cochilco.
Global molybdenum mine production in 2011 was 269,000t, up 9.7% from 2010 (probably according to USGS), with China accounting for 39.2%, the US 25.2%, Chile 15.2%, Peru 7.1% and Mexico 4.1%.
To read the full interview with Ross Strachan, click here, and to download the Cochilco report, in Spanish, click here