Thoughts Borne of Frustration As TAO’s share price has declined, it’s only natural that the frustration levels of investors posting on this board have increased...and I’m right there as frustrated as anyone. I did not expect to see the south side of $4 again for TAO’s share price.
I still have confidence (though it has been shaken) in TAO management for the long-term management of their New Zealand properties to maximize the production and the profits that can be derived from them. The New Zealand conventional reservoirs (or, at least, those that TAO has thus far drilled into) seem to have production limits and decline rates that some seem to deem unacceptable. But, these are still (relatively speaking) early days in New Zealand’s oil + gas production, and in TAO’s experience there. To my mind, TAO has done a good job of learning from its growing body of drilling and production experience and, thus far, navigating the situation relatively successfully...profitable production, building up very healthy cash and working capital positions, self-funding its drilling and infrastructure programs without getting encumbered by debt and without diluting the share structure. For a better appreciation of what TAO management has accomplished, contrast TAO with NZ who seem to be trying to replicate TAO’s success in the same area.
Although, historically, I’ve been a supporter of TAO management, my support is not blind nor is it limitless. Here are some points of frustration for me:
1. Communication by the company, through news releases or the facilities of its website, has not been nearly as good as it could or should be, imo. While there has been improvement in this area since I first became a shareholder in TAO, it is still sadly lacking. Perhaps, as some posters have alluded to, there is a method to the madness, but I feel that a good deal of the share price decline since the start of this calendar year can be blamed on the way the Apache pullout has been handled from an IR perspective, up to and including Drew Cadenhead’s remarks during the recent conference call. At the very least, it’s time for a new corporate presentation on the website. And, how about making use of the blog to keep investors better informed of drilling progress, production rates, etc.
2. The normal course issuer bid announced by TAO in its news release of December 6, 2012 has been woefully under-utilized in a situation that seems tailor-made for its use. If TAO saw fit to buy back shares on the open market at an average weighted price of $5.91 prior to that news release, and continued to do so at prices between $5.75 - 5.90 in the couple of weeks following the news release, why have they only bought a total of 125,000 shares since January 1st (at prices between $4.00 - 4.50)? Doesn’t this reinforce the market’s perception that, even at $4.00, TAO doesn’t think its own shares are undervalued? And, in contrast to the cancellation of shares that were bought back through the end of calendar 2012, why did TAO sell shares purchased under the normal course issuer bid since January 1st back into the market (62,200 shares sold on 24 January @ $4.49...and 37,800 shares sold on 31 January @ $4.67)? Would that not also tell the markets that TAO management doesn’t think TAO’s share price should be valued higher than the mid-4s? What is the method to this madness?
3. TAO was once a very junior resource penny stock listed on the Venture Exchange. It’s now a profitable producing company listed on the TSX. TAO is not Alex Guidi’s personal plaything...it’s a publicly listed company whose shareholders deserve to be treated accordingly. Alex may have plans for the company, but he and TAO management need to be more forthcoming about the details of situations like the investments in Coronado and Opunake Hydro.
4. While there has been some limited open market buying of TAO shares by TAO management (Garth Johnson 5,000 @ $3.86 - 4.48, and Drew Cadenhead 10,000 @ $4.38 - 4.49) since the Apache announcement, I’d like to see Alex Guidi also buying...and buying in blocks similar in size to what he sold last year (e.g. 100,000 @ $8.20 on 31 January; 100,000 @ $8.35 on 15 February; 26,400 @ $9.75 on 9 March; 100,000 @ $10.05 on 16 March; 200,000 @ $11.00 on 19 April)...and what about other members of the Board of Directors who, for the most part, have only ‘option’ skin in the game? Buying by Alex Guidi and other members of the Board would surely be interpreted positively by the markets...notwithstanding those few who would claim ‘roundtripping’ by Guidi. (NOTE: I’m not criticizing Guidi for selling any shares...we all have to manage our personal finances and investments for our own best benefit and I won’t criticize members of management for doing exactly what I was doing myself...the 526,400 shares Guidi sold in calendar 2012 was only 12.6% of the amount he held at the start of the year, a lower percentage than what I sold of my position over the course of 2012.)
We TAO shareholders are currently cursed to be living in interesting times...let’s hope these interesting times turn out to be profitable in the end. GLTA