RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Comments on BNN this morning I think I'd understand your analysis if it was logical - try me.
I tend to do calculations based on flowing barrels, looking at enterprise value, the type of production, etc.
My numbers are at home, but I'm pretty sure Twin Butte is trading at around $30,000 - $40,000 per flowing barrel. As a heavily oil weighted stock, that's usually considered cheap. Using a typical valuation per flowing barrel (possibly something closer to what Baytex trades at) you'd probably come to a conclusion that Twin Butte is quite undervalued right now.
Debt to cashflow is around 1.5 or less, indicating that there's no debt issues. Sometimes you'd value a company lower if there's too much debt - but that's not the case here.
Payout ratio is good too, most dividend paying oil stocks have a much worse payout ratio. Company says 100% or slightly less, even if you're factoring in further drops in oil prices, operations with dividend are quite sustainable. Most other companies have payout ratios over 100% right now, which is obviously less desirable.
I'm not going into great detail here, but that's the type of thing I'm looking at. I am interested to know what you're looking at to understand why we are coming to much different conclusions.
I mean, your math would say that you would be a buyer at maybe $20,000 per flowing barrel? $25,000 per flowing barrel? Granted, that's a great price to be a buyer - but that's being pretty greedy if you're actually waiting for that to happen. More likely that you'd miss the boat and Twin Butte goes back to $3 IMO.
But like I said, I'd love to hear your logic.