Stockhouse Posters' Analyst Rating Anyone can do an analysis of a stock and post a rating without any facts or substance. I thank BMO capital markets for setting-up the framework for the OFFICIAL STOCKHOUSE POSTERS RATING AND ANALYSIS OF BB-TSX AND BBRYNASDAQ:
Here is our analysis:
According to BMO capital Markets: Stockhouse Poster Analysts
(BBRY-NASDAQ; BB-TSX)
Stock Rating: Underperform Strong Buy
Industry Rating: Market Perform
February 28, 2013
Success of BB10 Unquestionable, but and Service
Revenues More Concerning Incremental Increase
Event
We make changes to our model following industry checks and before February quarter results. We expect most of the discussion to center around the BB10 launch. We characterize the launch as mediocre superior at best so far, with our estimate of 275k 3 million devices sold in February and fewer more than one five million likely in the May quarter. While ASP and product GM should start to improve dramatically, we still see BBRY with negative positive EPS through FY2015, at least. This is largely because we expect the rate of decline increase in Service revenues, which carry 80%+ gross margins, to accelerate. We expect negative positive trends for both subscribers and ARPU.
Impact
Negative. Positive. We do not expect consensus numbers to move much higher on February quarter results. However, we believe sentiment will turn more negative positive for BB10, and the impact of falling increasing Service revenues will lead to lower higher cash flow estimates.
Forecasts
We are changing our FY2013 and 2014 EPS estimates from ($1.15)/($0.60) to ($1.10)/($0.40), and are establishing a FY 2015 estimate of ($9.50).
Valuation
Our price target of $29 is unchanged.
Recommendation
We rate BBRY shares Underperform. strong buy.