Reading between the lines Some things were said in this PR and some were not.
Q4 will look a lot better than anticipated. It is still hard to forecast Q4 since we do not know the lifting for Oct but we know that Nov/Dec was 600K with no loss since it is "in lieu" of oil.
We can extrapolate that total Q4 production with the added 300K from AGIP was: 300K (AGIP) + 260K (October after loses) + 60K (dec. after loses) = 620K. Revenue barrels could be different since we do not know what was not lifted at the end of Q4 and what was left in the tanks after Q3.
Upgrade on the rig. Wonder why? could be 2 reasons:
One, they want to go deeper or at a different angle (>length)
Two, They had a lot of trouble with 10 and they learned what needs to be done for 11.
So unless you are on site and a drill engineer let's trust management that they are doing the right thing. Over the last 2 years they have proven that they do.
Pipeline. As I anticipated they have 2 crews working on it in order to go faster. It is more expensive to do it that way but who cares. They had estimated in the past that it would take 4 to 5 months for the construction phase. With 2 crews Early Q3 is very feasible. That would match Oando disclosure.
AGIP.
10 days down in February.
First, the company has always forecasted 5 days a month outage for repairs or other incidents. With almost no outage in January we are on track.
Second, A lot of people have been talking about upgrades to the AGIP pipeline for higher capacity. Could it be that after the main repairs for the damages they have upgraded the pumps?
It would be nice to have a bit more flow since we have to repay the oil.
We know another shoe will drop soon with Divi, reserves, second rig announced by FE, etc, etc
All of the above is IMO and based on public data.
Have a nice weekend