* we know that MMT owes a gross amount of 300,000 barrels of deficit oil to AGIP as of the end of January.
* according to Stonecap, MMt had around 54.5 mm in cash at the end of Q3.
"With $54.5 million in cash at the end of 3Q12, Mart is expected
to start its 2013 development program with a strong balance
sheet and maintain its dividend payment. We believe Mart is
fully capable of meeting a $70.0 - $80.0 million capex
requirement for its growth plan with current cash balance and
future operating cashflow."
* they pay out a quarterly dividend of 5 cents that costs them approximately $17.5 mm. That was paid out in January so MMT's net cash position should have been around 37.5 mm after said pay-out.
* as per today's news release...MMT received monies from Agip in January and February for a 600,000 barrel lifting from the Brass River oil terminal. We were to have had our cost oil recovery rate go up that quarter as the Nigerians had asked for a 90 day delay in paying for their share of the Umu 10 drilling costs. If you use a very conservative 600,000 x 65% x 65 net-back you would get another $25.5 mm in cash for MMT.
Add that to the 37.5 mm after Q4 divy pay-out and MMT should have a net working cash amount of not less than 63 mm or so at present.
Yet no mention of the First Quarter divy being safe? That and the other nonsense is what confirms for me that today's news release was orchestrated as part of the effort to combine the company. Any IR type with any degree of common sense would have had management put that into the news release.
* no matter. We are where we are...over $2 and have churned for a month in that range on huge volume. We have a gigantic oil field to deliver between 2013 and 2014 and we have two rigs either on site or coming and two pipeline construction work crews to get us to big oil.
* consider the following as well.....out of all of the the on-shore producers we will be the highest producing with the highest net-backs in the entire country within the next one to one+ quarters and that includes the majors...Maurel and Prom Nigeria, Eland, Heritage, etc etc......any company that produces a large amount of oil for on-shore Nigeria...i.e. 30,000 bpd+ (gross)....we will have net-backs 2 to 2.5x as high as theirs on a per flowing barrel basis. Beat that anywhere in Nigeria (onshore)!
OJ