NYSE:IVAN.WS - Post by User
Comment by
MustangMatton Mar 06, 2013 12:48am
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Post# 21084988
RE: I'm in
RE: I'm in Has anyone got any thoughts as to "our" company here. It has gotten real quiet as of late. The stock so far has been skipping along the 200 day moving average for the last 2 weeks or so. They say Tamarack should be approved by the end of this month +- 3 weeks away. I must say I am bullish on the stock, however, is any one else concerned that it is going to be crazy hard to find 1.4 billion to build Tamarack in this environment? You have got some big boy oil companies like Suncor talking about shelving projects not building new ones. I know these types of deals are long term projects that take years to build and decades to fully realize the profits from. Anyone they find to JV is going to be a big boy, they would be looking into the future 5 or 10 years from now. Even though Ivanhoe has some cash they are going to need alot more to build this Tamarck. There are lots of potential solutions though 50/50 JV now you need to come up with 700 million. Say they have 100 million now so the need 600 million more. If they book the reserves from Tamarack and make a deal in Ecuador, or licence the HTL technology to a a super major, maybe they can get the share price up to a buck and half or two bucks. Maybe swing another 100 million out of the wrangling of those deals. So now you need half a billion, if the share price is over 2 bucks you could issue 100 million shares and say raise 200 million, so with the booked reserves and a JV partner with 700 million cash, maybe the banks would issue them 300 million in secured notes at say 10% interest. Viola now you have 50% of 20,000 barrels per day. That would get you 10,000 barrels/day at say $35 net back, say 10 million a month net not bad, however, it could prove out the technology which would be the potental company maker. That is a lot of ifs and buts to build this puppy. I would say sell more than a 50% stake at Tamarack, however, the new foreign ownershp rules make this more difficult. Either way no matter what Ivanhoe is going to need tonnes of mony to build this, oilsands are not for jr's. Anyone have any thoughts on this etc. cheers