Reasons given for 2012 production declines These are the reasons given by management to justify production declines in the last 4 quarters, according to respective press releases:
Q1 2012
“Petroleum and natural gas sales in the first quarter of 2012 averaged 1,572 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOE/d") (net), down 15% from the fourth quarter of 2011 due primarily to deferral of drilling in the Thrace Basin of Turkey pending completion of the interpretation of new 3D seismic shot in late 2011. “
Q2 2012
Corporate petroleum and natural gas sales in the second quarter of 2012 averaged 1,340 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOE/d") (net), down 15% from the first quarter of 2012 due to natural declines, liquid loading in a number of wells, and delays in completing, evaluating and fracing new proof-of-concept deep wells in the Thrace Basin.
Q3 2012
Corporate petroleum and natural gas sales in the third quarter of 2012 averaged 1,140 BOE per day ("BOE/d") (net), down 15% from the second quarter of 2012 due to natural declines and a slowing of the drilling and frac program in the Thrace Basin in order to evaluate the results of the initial deep well drilling carried out in the second quarter.
Q4 2012 (press release issued today)
Sales in the fourth quarter of 2012 averaged 1,008 boe/d (net), down 12% from the third quarter of 2012, reflecting natural declines and a four month gap in the frac program in the Thrace Basin from late August to late December 2012 , while the frac spread was contracted elsewhere for longer than expected.
What do you think of this? I don´t have the technical background required to understand if these are reasonable justifications for the declining production or excuses in order to hide the fact that the play is not delivering as planned.
But, on the other hand, if we can increase production, we already have a reserve + contingent resource base, enought to make a billon dollar company in the future (100 MM boe @ US$ 15/b= US$ 1,5 billon).
I would like to know your oppinions on the subject
Thanks in advance
Fernando