Where's the Bottom? I keep looking at this stock every day, still haven't bought back in. I believe in them long term, but really wonder if this is as low as it can go. They still have about 9 months of rough going ahead of them before they see the light. Moly prices aren't predicted to get much better anytime soon, the long term outlook for iron ore seems to support this outlook as well.
Steel companies overall haven't been doing that well even though the markets are at or near all-time highs. Iron ore producers like Cliffs are having serious problems as well. TC's profits (or lack thereof) are going to depend on moly for the rest of this year, (I doubt that Mount Milligan copper/gold sales will make it onto the books until very late in the year). Demand is just not there right now for their product, blame whatever cause is most popular (bad economy, China, oversupply in the short term).
They're having a lot of problems at Endako with tailings and production. The Thompson Creek mine still seems to be running alright, although I saw some information on the company website indicating they discontinued waste stripping associated with the next phase of production there. Putting all that together, I think it's likely they're going to continue to show EPS losses for the rest of the year.
On the other hand, everything has a bottom. Are all these negative factors already in the stock price today, or will we see it test $2.25 again? I think I'll wait for some signal that we've bottomed out, even if it means waiting for it to go back up 10%-15% and missing out on some profit. It's been spending a lot of time in this $3 - $3.50 range, and volumes haven't been heavy at all lately (the last day that was much above average was 10 days ago). Yesterday's volume was about half of normal and today is looking pretty bad too, and this is expiration week when you'd expect to maybe see some action.
Options traders are giving the stock the same likelihood of finishing above $3 as below for April, with the put and call both netting about $.10 each. I feel it might trend down toward $3 over the next month, there's no earnings release due until April 29th, after expirations. Just an opinion, nothing concrete to back this up. I just don't see any other good news coming out before then, and the earnings might very well be bad news as well.
$5 calls for 2 years out are sort of looking attractive to me, still thinking about that since I could control 100 shares for just $60 and I think by 2015 they're either going to be making a nice profit and will have seen a nice rebound in share price or they'll have gone bankrupt.