Boring Economics The talk of tenures is interesting. They are slightly reduced (BC, Que) but on the whole not going to be an issue. I key in on skilled labour as an indicator:
https://www.ainsworthengineered.com/contacts/careers/
Now, not making a lot of progress for months on end is it? The oil patch has made a hash on wages. Coupled with the cyclicalality, it's a tough sell. There is no simple answer for ANS to this problem save for spending their way out of the trouble and cursing the oil patch for escalating wages as opposed to increasing supply.
Now, inputs. OSB can be had from anything like you know. If there are tenure considerations in Canada, how about the radiate pine or eucalyptus in the southern hemisphere? This market is like pulp: feast.famine as new capacity gets dreamed up when there are excess profits to be had.
So, for me, the challenge is avoiding an even-lower-cost disruption. Clayton Christensen has good articles on this topic. How to get into Chile before Auraco saturates? Anyway, this seems irrelevant until once considers your dividend or buy-back. You either return wealth to shareholders who, frankly don't need it given the run-up and re-capitaliztion, or start to look at labour and possible ways to (a) limit the osb supply or (b) take a cut of the action of any increases that do happen.
I just wonder who will have the foresight to play defense and buy assets like Canfor's PolarBoard -- and rip it down? That to me is strategic. Idled capacity must stay idled often.
/DP