RE: RE: Wake up Big Pharma!
Good morning Beenthere: I understand where you are coming from completely. It is paramount for the middle and lower class to protect themsleves against the cumulative erosion of our standard of living. I'm not sure I'm answering your question properly but it is my belief that the pharmaceautical industry will undergo drastic changes of necessity over the next several years as we are already beginning to see now. When Abbott went through some rough times in the seventies (which will pale in comparison to what is coming), the expression 'mean and lean' was ubiquitous.
We are approaching the end game in the experiment in socialism. Governments cannot endlessly run up ruinous levels of debt without consequence. The politicians have been buying votes for too long and the ‘cradle to grave’ policies of the nanny state are no longer affordable. Governments are now borrowing so much they cannot pay the interest rates on their debt… as they borrow just to pay those interest rates. Soon, interest rates will go up as creditors demand more compensation for greater risk. Printing money devalues currency; borrowing money (Gov. Bonds) will mean higher bond rates and lower bond values. Pension funds are now being raided by businesses and Governments. Savings are being depleted by negative return on them as manipulated interest rates are far under the real inflation rate. The result is such as happened in Cyprus, the Gov. illegally confiscates the savings of those who have trusted them to keep the money they have already paid tax on. Trust is lost and bank runs result. It is an old story that repeats down through the ages.
Security is lost as governments spend nations into bankruptcy. More money is printed to paper over the debt and inflation Tsunami until it beaches. Banks run to Governments to save them using the public’s money. The banks have used the public’s money to rescue them from their own greed and criminality. Big money and Gov. are in bed but the people still elect politicians who continue to spend. The U.S. and then Canada are following in the steps of Europe. The next dominoes too fall will be Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and others. Japan is bankrupt now, owing well over 200% of its GDP. The U.S... is underpinning the European Banks with $trillions of printed now. Bernanke will print and print and print.
It goes on and on. The result is that the consumer and the real taxpayer have and are becoming poorer. The voracious demand to pay for health care (and so much else) will no longer be affordable and inevitable cuts must be made. This means fewer dollars available for so many things, like drugs. Many pharmas will face reduced earnings and profits as people and Governments cut back and back and back. Any pharma that can survive the coming cull will have to increase volumes with better pricing. The more expensive drugs will suffer first and most. The way I see it is that a technology like BTI has will give the advantage to those pharmas able to capitalize on it… larger secured markets with drugs already on the market … such as generics and soon-to-be-generics. .. which, conjugated with Transcend, can become new drug entities rapidly at lower cost spread over large markets.
Of course this is just a very brief answer to your question. What we invest in and own over the next several weeks and months may be the only salvation individuals have to secure their future... unless you are abanker or politician wiith and indexed pension.