An Inconvenient Truth Steady's last post included an interview with Chad where he talks about fiber demand. I should point out that Chad has made similar arguments about fiber demand in past presentations and we all know what has happened to dissolving pulp prices. Of course, Steady has conveniently ignored the supply side of dissolving pulp.
RBC provided a listing of all the dp additions coming on stream over the next several years and it is shocking. Here is a year by year estimate of total commodity dp supply in tonnes.
2011- 4,058 2012 -5,379 2013- 6,184 2014- 7,041 2015- 7,426 2016- 8,067
The amount of capacity additions over the next few years is significant and this additional supply is the main reason dp prices won't do much. It will take years for demand to catch up with all the additional supply. Here's a quote from the last FTP earnings release. "However, we expect that dissolving pulp prices will remain under pressure due to new capacity expected to enter the market in the first half of 2013." That may be an understatement.
My two cents worth.