RE: Nolan buys @ Elmo
Thanks! I think too that management has great confidence with the company but Nolan should have left some money from his time at silver wheaton too I would say but nevertheless management buying is always a good sign.
@ MrC
I do not think that they will use big brother again because why would they have then paid the $15mio to them?
Personally I think they are waiting for 2 things: Production from Bracemac and the 43-101 from Colossus because then Mr. Market should be able to value this stream better and I assume it should support the share price and then dilution would not bother me that much - leaving all the past behind.
Thanks for sharing the seekingalpha article there were 2 points that catched my eye:
1.) the number for production at Bracemac in the presentation of SND is 21m lbs/y and not 26+?
2.) Pd production from Colossus seems quite high in my eyes:
IF the really produce 60k ounces of Pd that would mean they produce 164 ounces (365d) a day which is about 5100 gram of pd/day. That means if youtake the number of 1000 tons/day into account they would need 5,1g/t of pd. So if they can achieve it that the mine runs 365d/y the need grades above 5g/t. Doing this with 75k ounces of pd they need 6,4g/t. If 60k-75k production can be achieved and Pd is at $600 this would earn SND 10,5 - 13,1 mio (full stream) to 5,3-6,5 mio. (50% bought back).
I am just a amateur in this space but: Paying 15mio/5,25mio for 10mio-13,1mio/y/5,3mio-6,5mio/y Cash Flow would have been a really good, I mean really good, deal? PAyback would be 3 years from the date of the deal which is extremely short?
Giving them recoverable 4g/t, 300d/y production with 1000t/d we would end up around 13.500 ounces pd attributable to SND which could be reduced to 6.750 if Colossus buys buck 50% of the stream. If I calculate with Pd $600/ounce this would lead to 3,4mio/6,4mio cash flow for SND which is quite nice for 5,25mio/15mio paid? We then would be around 5 years payback which is good and a little more realistic in my eyes?
BUT as I said I am just an amateur crunching some numbers.
I would be satisifed if from 2015 on we could get CF from Thunderbird of 4mio/y, Donner of 14mio/y and Colossus of 4mio/y which would leave us around 20mio (after G&A) and the possibility to do 1-2 streams. 2014 combined cashflows of 17mio should give us the opportunity to do a 15mio deal (2mio for G&A) and 2013 the capital raising might be the source of money.
But who knows, maybe they can get the financing of Novadx done or could get at least enough money back to do one other deal in 2013 maybe no dilution will be necessary at all?
Just my thoughts which might be dead wrong. DYODD! :-)
HAppy Easter everybody!
carinthian