RE: NUMBERS: I can see clearer Now Yes, a possible scenario - as possible as this scenario:
- BXI stake will be half of what you have assumed, let's say: 15-20 % of the JV > halfen your scenario and sp.
- The 75,000 ton plant will not produce (because of lack of demand) at full capacity, but only at half of its capacity for the first years (market penetration takes time) > halfen your scenario and sp again.
- the profit margin is reduced in the first years (because plant is not producing at full capacity and marketing of a new products costs a lot of money for advertsing. Ernings may be half of what you have assumed.
>> this would mean that profit and SP may be only 1/8 of what you have assumed. Not 80 cents but 8 cents like today and in 3 years from now..... And this scenario does not considering that the most likely marketing approval will not be bevore end of 2014 (!)
Look at the EFSA Homepage and check how log it takes (average) to get green light for a Novel Food. "Green light" by EFSA (which means that the EU Agency consders that the novel food is safe) is of course a very thing, but did you consider that even AFTER EFSA gives green light, the EU Member States have to meet at the EC to discuss and formally decides under which conditions the novel food will be allowed to be marketed. This takes againt at least half of year, not rarely one full year, before the EU finally provides the marketing authorisation.
Check the EFSA website how long iit takes for a Novel Food and how long it takes to get the marketing approval. Will the other parters really spend XX Millions before the EU gives green light. I doubt. Any CEO who signs such a contract and committs spending Mio of €uros without marketing approval risks of being grilled by the board, if anything goes wrong there.
A lost of speculation with regards to numbers and sp. We should await end of April and at least see how big BXII stake of the JV will be and the other terms.
In any case it will be only good to reduce the number of uncertainties. We will hopefully see at the end of April. Overall, the JV sounds very reasonable to me and is proobably the best under these circustances.
I still wonder however why and on what basis one assumes that the JV could produce at full capacity with 75,000 tons, when the demaad for such a product was rather neglibible up to now in North America.
Consumer behavour is different in Europe in some regards, but I do not see the basis for such an optismus (at least not for the first years of production and sales) to assue that one could produce 75,000 tons with a proft margin of 30 %. This sounds rather like a dream than reality.
Foodhawk