RE: RE: RE: Exxon: Liberia's Oil Drilling Begins W We need to keep some perspective on this. While we XOP shareholders want this well drilled NOW and the government will want activity as soon as possible, there will be a reason that the re-negotiated PSC allows a 3-yr phase in which to drill the well. Exxon says it will open an office within 6 months, but there will be a lot happening on the technical side which could include reprocessing and re-interpretation of seismic, maybe plans for a new 3d shoot before drilling etc. This will be a very expensive well and they will want to get the location right to give the best chance for success. For these deepwater plays, well planning and logistics including long-lead items and sourcing a rig can easily take a year as well.
As for the billions of barrels, don't count your chickens yet - keep in mind that's the potential size of the prospect but that's all it is - nothing proven, just a prospect and a high-risk one at that, like many other deepwater fan systems drilled offshore W. Africa that came up dry, sub-commercial, or have at least yet to be declared commercial. All us gamblers will be willing to make a bet that it works but market analysts who know this business will understand the risks and be more cautious about their valuations. They're certainly (and obviously!) not ready to give this anything close to a 4B bbl valuation yet.