RE: me thinks I think you got it right, Silver. While this will sit in the hopper of global opportunities for XOM, they will have a West Africa or Deepwater exploration group with its own budget and hopefully this will have a priority place in upcoming plans. When they eventually release an anticipated spud date I expect we'll start to see the SP climb as more speculators jump in. Then we'll have a decision to make - do you take some profit on the way up, and how much do you hold on to in hopes of a big hit.
The stock will drop like a rock within minutes on a confirmed dry hole, but we might have a cushion if they don't release conclusive results after drilling. Chevron drilled a well on each of LB 11 and 12 in 2012 and as far as I have seen they have yet to release anything, holding info tight while they "assess results and future drilling plans". This scares me a bit because its hard to hold down news of a good discovery, especially in these parts of the world.