RE: RE: NBSK Prices Still Moving Higher Turtle. All I can go on is the experience of Thurso and the conversion there took about 18 months with the ramp up still in progress, another year later. I doubt it would take as long to reverse but there would need to be a much larger difference in price between NBSK and DP, as well a reason for that diffeerence to persist, before a company would decide to do that, in my opinion. The benefit of a swing operation is the ability to switch between the two products, as prices change. I doubt it is as easy as hitting a switch but swing capability does require additional capital investment and it is done to give the producer the ability to focus on whichever product is providing the maximum benefit, at any given time. As I indicated, NBSK would be providing that maximum benefit today. Not only is the price higher but since the specifications are easier to meet, a mill's yield would even be higher then 10% more over DP production, since less would need to be sold as below specification product. From my analysis of Fortress Paper, it appears they don't even get back the cost of the wood for below spec. DP. I have no idea how long it takes to implement a switch for a swing producer but I doubt it is more then a few days. In my post, I indicated that both swing production would be looking at switching to NBSK today, as well as conversions not converting. What I meant by the last part is that I would not expect a mill that is in the process of conversion to halt it, because NBSK is selling at a higher price. What I would expect, however, is that they would do what Fortress did. You will recall that at Thurso they first started producing NBSK or BHK (I can't remember which regular pulp they were producing) and then as those bugs were worked out, made the conversion to DP. If NBSK and DP prices were at the levels they are today, it is my opinion that Fortress Paper would have delayed the conversion and continued to produce NBSK, since it would have provided more benefit. Therefore, it is also my opinion, that any of the forecasted supply that is supposed to convert in 2013, that is currently producing NBSK, will delay that conversion, reducing the pressure on dissolving pulp prices. All that being said, all I am talking about is a reduced pressure on the decline in DP prices. None of what I said, will have much effect on the current supply of DP, therefore this in itself will not increase DP prices. It just means that continued decreases in prices are less likely. For an increase in price we will require an increase in demand or some of the current producers to shut down production. From my analysis, it would require a DP price at least $200 per tonne, below a mill's cost of production, before they would lose less money by shutting down, then they would by running their mill full out, and therefore made the decision to quit producing dissolving pulp.