RE: Manipulation "...the basic arguments are still there - and true:
QE in many regions , bad banks in many regions , a lot of debt in many regions,
political difficulties in many regions etc. This should still benefit safe havens."
A bull position based on long term fundementals has been more enduring and predictable since the begining of this bull run in gold in 2001 vs. a bear position based on short term technical analysis.
We saw a pull back in 2008 (first chart) similar to the one we are seeing now but the fundementals for gold are even better now for a continuation of a bull market in gold.
When adjusted for inflation gold is not in a bubble. (second chart). Gold prices only reached levels in 2011 that where seen 20 years earlier when adjusted for inflation.
With a global easy money environment with real negative interest rates (chart 3) and quantative easing (money printing) creating a bubble in the S&P over the last 5 1/2 months that has become disconnected from the real economy (chart 4) gold has risen and the value of the S&P in ounces has declined (chart 5).
In short, with real economies not recovering (Europe is in a mess and Asia is not picking up as much slack recently) as expected, with low global GDP (IMF has lowered its global GDP forcast recently), and real negative interest rates, we will cotinue to see high unemployment and an easy money environment.
