RE: RE: kaiser killed me I agree that Kaiser led his subscribers badly astray on this stock and on many others.
Yes, FPX has come up with a revolutionary and highly innovate way to produce nickel, and Kaiser's enthusiam for this "thinking outside the box" concept was highly infectious. But despite all of his years promoting his (very good) "Rational Speculation Model", on this stock Kaiser forgot a fundamental principle, that if you're working with rock that has an in-situ ore value of $20 per ton, then it doesn't really matter how efficiently you can extract that ore, because you've still got to mine the rock, then grind it into fine powder, then extract the metal, then deal with mess that that's left over after you've magnetically extracted the nickel & iron. And the project is still going to have an initial capex of $1 billion or so to set up the operation, and when you're working with rock that has only 0.13% metal in it then your project will have, at best, only marginal economics.
In retrospect, the problems with FPX's projects seem so obvious, but I was was blind to them because of Kaiser's detailed and seemingly careful analysis.
Yes, it's a long list of stocks that Kaiser has promoted in the last few years that have done terribly poorly. OK, everyone's going to have some bad luck, and yeah, the market downdrafts have been huge, but to have dozens of stocks that have lost 80% to 90%, and not a single winner?