Regal Partners Ltd V.RPL

Should Have A Verdict By Year End

[InvestorSuperfan]

In my view, right now we are witnessing Renegade shares getting pummelled by the perfect storm: Uncertainty re. how bad the debt situation really is, management silence on the recent $12.9M asset sale, what the financial advisors will recommend, what management will actually do based on those recommendations, whether the dividend will be cut )or eliminated in it's entirety), etc. Uncertainty about what the plan is going forward for a company just kills the stock price. There are so many unknowns right now that investors don't know what the company will look like 1 or 3 or 6 months from now, so there is a reason why the share price is getting clobbered, and it's an understandable one. I think the following statements are fair: Management messed up with the combo of a $405M asset purchase combined with the institution of the dividend in December. Investors didn't find out about the situation until the Dec 31 financial statements were released in March. If yield-seeking investors had waited to see these financial statements to examine the state of the company's finances after the asset purchase, they would have saved themselves a lot of grief (and money) - I count myself in this group. For those invested in Renegade as a growth stock prior to the asset purchase and saw the stock drop from the $4 range to the $2.50 range, the decision of a small cap company to purchase $405 million in assets should have been a red flag to maybe engage in tax loss selling of RPL in November or December and move on (some pretty good Monday Morning Quarterbacking there, huh.......?). Nonetheless, it is what it is. My continued faith in this stock rests solely on the notion that they have excellent light oil assets that I think are worth much more than the current  market cap of the company,  and they do have signifcant hedges on both 2013 and 2014 production. I suspect that, barring some catastrophe, the Q3 and Q4 production and revenue numbers should be good, and combined with a clear plan that is conveyed to shareholders in an honest fashion, the stock has a very good chance of regaining much of the share price losses suffered this year to date. If not, get ready for brutal tax loss selling of RPL in November / December and watch the stock plummet to lord-only-knows how low.