RE: RE: Ouch !!
re. Nosleep,
You are right, this was most likely a one-quarter event.
If COS can adhere to its outlook, the share price should recover from these depressed levels.
105k bpd @$85 leaves room for surprises, particularly on the price side.
The disappointments from Q1 were priced in, and results not as bad as expected.
This is what the market sees.
2013 Outlook revised
Canadian Oil Sands provides the following key estimates and assumptions for 2013:
• We now estimate an annual production range for Syncrude of 100 million to 110 million barrels in 2013. The singlepoint
production figure of 105 million barrels, 38.6 million barrels net to COS, incorporates a planned turnaround of
Coker 8-1 in the second half of the year.
• Sales, net of crude oil purchases and transportation expense, of approximately $3.3 billion reflect a production estimate
of 38.6 million barrels and an $85 per barrel plant-gate realized selling price (based on a U.S. $85 per barrel WTI oil
price, a foreign exchange rate of $1.00 U.S./Cdn, and a SCO price equal to Cdn dollar WTI).
• We estimate cash flow from operations of $1,097 million, or $2.26 per Share.
• Capital expenditures are estimated to total $1,298 million, comprised of $839 million of spending on major projects,
$360 million in regular maintenance of the business and other projects, and $99 million in capitalized interest.
• COS intends to maintain a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per Share in 2013, based on the assumptions provided in our
Outlook for 2013.