RE: RE: Another is a long string of disappointment A variety of things have negatively affected the stock price. The arrival of fracking is a game changer eliminating the near term threats of energy shortage. The huge gap between oil and gas prices pushes for substitution of gas for oil wherever possible. Weak worldwide economies hurt demand. These are already reasons to be cautious about holding stock in oil companies.
But this company has also contributed to its own problems. It planned increases in capacity along with other Alberta producers with no attention paid to how increased production could get to market. When I first bought this stock (pre Imperial Oil management), production was reasonably predictable. The company seemed well run with reasonably predictable output. Since Imperial Oil's involvement, they have shown astonishing levels of operational incompetence. Repeated outages mean not only lower production, but not even the ability to reliably predict what production will be. There is no excuse for the continuing series of unplanned outages and for continuing new capital expenditures that were not previously planned and do not increase output. Operating cost/barrel have climbed with the price of oil more than with inflation. Like a government agency, COS finds a way to increase spending as cash available to spend increases.
The high yield is tempting but is a symptom of investor loss of confidence in the company's future. The huge asset base at a low price/share is similar to a company like Sears with a lot of land value per share. In either case, the company can be worth less than its assets if investors reasonably expect management to waste assets and not operate efficiently. If Sears doesn't ever sell the land except as needed to fund ongoing retailing losses, the value/share is irrelevant. Similarly if COS blows most proceeds of oil production on operating inefficiency and poorly conceived capital projects, the value of underlying assets is irrelevant. In my long history of investing, I have learned to run from management that excels in finding repeated excuses for its failures.