RE: some thoughts on the story Very good post braincloud. I think the point that needs to be emphasized the most is your 3rd point - risk. All valuation models discount earnings or free cash flows at a rate which factors in all the risks involved. With BNK we have several risks.
1. Liquidity Risk: The stock is very illiquid trading at an average over just over a million shares per day.
2. Size: Being such a small company, it is discounted more than a large stable company because it has less access to debt financing, equity financing, it can't absorb disasters because most of its operations are in the same geographic location.
3. Political Risk: The company's operations are in Albania. Who has control over what goes on over there? Albanian politicians do.
4. Operational Risk: BNK has had many operational hiccups due to flooding and what not. Yes they have done a very good job recovering from all that, but it is a risk that is factored into the valuation.
5. Commodity Price Risk: Theres no certainty where oil prices are going right now it seems like a huge toss up. If it were clear oil was rising, this risk would be reduced, but it can go either way and very quickly.
Theres many other risks I can't think of them all right now. But when you factor those into a standard free cashflow discount model, the stock is priced pretty much bang on.
That being said these risks need to be reduced or eliminated for the value of the stock goes up. Risk reduction combined with better than expected growth makes this play have an incredible potential for upside. I mean we're talking about an easy double from here if simply oil shows a clear direction and BNK meets its targets. Hence why I am long the stock. Yes it is very risky, but if the market doesn't give out, then BNK's future is very positive I just hope Albania doesn't get into any trouble...