RE: RE: RE: RE: VIX futures at 13.77 Commodities will start after the S&P correction so maybe June-August range.
I'm not seeing an S&P crash that many others are calling for like S&P down to 666 and such, just a healthy correction. The reason being is because I don't see the Fed stopping money printing which will keep inflation rampant. The correction will take the hysteria off of the S&P and keep it in the 1300-1700 range for the next year or so IMO. The Hysteria will then shift over to commodities as demand continues to be driven, currency continues to be devalued and some central banks start getting smart and buying Precious Metals.
After all, like you said they have been clobbered lately. I look at that as being cheap.
Also, it would never happen that the S&P would crash and commodities would rise because an overall inflationary environment would cause all prices to trend up. As much as commodities like gold/silver are "end of the world hedges" they actually require some "positivity"--fake or real--to rise.
I see commodities being the hedge to inflation as this currency crisis continues to unfold. I've said it before but sooner or later we get the ultimatum when commodities are sky high. The currency crisis is solved 1 of 3 ways:
-An outright default to foreign creditors which would cause a giant crash in asset prices. This would be excellent for the Dollar and cause Stocks, commodities, and metals to crash. (This would be the quickest, most intense, and best overall option for this problem to be solved IMO because restructuring would be quick and a hard bottom would be in place).
-The US continues to print, rendering the Dollar closer and closer to worthless. Third party competing currencies start to appear, and people start to hedge with metals which cannot be counterfeited. This is starting to occur already (bitcoin etc), but essentially we would end up with an informal gold standard where the dollar is still used but most people back it with gold/silver. Call it the "market solution".
-Lastly we could formally switch to the gold standard where the dollar is formally backed by gold that the central banks/government hold.
We cannot predict which one of these events will occur. It's all up to the policy makers. They choose the path we take. In the meantime the market will try to solve this crisis with option number 2 by printing, and undervalued commodities will rise.
No better time to buy a farm. Most people thought they'd never hear that in their lifetimes!