How much could UMU field produce daily If the pipeline capacity were in place, how much oil could UMU produce currently, based on existing wells that are in place and hooked up right now? In other words, the horizontal has not been started, the exploration well hasn't been started, UMU-10 hasn't been completed, and UMU-11 hasn't been started, so how much oil could the UMU field produce right now, using all wells completed up thru UMU-9?
My point is we've seen some big numbers thrown around for total daily UMU production. In particular, we've heard numbers like 30-40,000bopd, but at this point, it looks like those big pie-n-d-sky numbers are really somewhere in the future (2014, not 2013 as we were hoping for 6 months ago).
I assume the UMU partners could produce somewhere around 16,000bopd if pipeline capacity were in place, and that could be increased maybe to 18,000 by opening some valves a little wider. If Agip could keep their pipeline flowing oil southward rather than spurting in every direction and being cooked into diesel fuel, we should be able to pay back all the deficit oil by July or so and we can increase production and nominate a slightly higher volume of oil to Agip's pipeline (and be paid for it). We basically need things to improve with the Agip pipeline for the remainder of the year, and we need to put some capex to work drilling and adding production from UMU-10, UMU-11 and the horizontal.
IMHO it's the various delays (caused by the pipeline shutdown and other complications) that have driven Mart down to the $1.40jesussaves, but we'll head up around the time of the AGM, assuming we have a barrel of good news delivered for the AGM (rather than hearing that Agip is down again). It's also true that management needs to give a much better estimate at the AGM of when the new pipeline will be operational, and when the horizontal and UMU-10 and UMU-11 will be in production.
I continue to hold with fingers and toes crossed.
Regards All,
'peeker