RE: NO DEAL.....................yet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I don't think there's an issue with the % tendered. With a 44% lockup and over 200mm shares traded since the deal was announced, I would guess that most of the stock is in the hands of arb investors who would tender for the extra penny - since most of the trade has been done at 37c since the deal was announced.
I would take it at face value that the government is being slow. I don't think this introduces too much deal risk. From the circular, Kelso started talking to Eacom in mid 2012, so another month to the finish probably isn't material vs the work already invested. Lumber prices are at or higher than when they made their first approach. Therefore I don't think they use this as an excuse to walk.
I'd expect a knee jerk trade down on Monday am, but not too far. If you assume this went from 100% certain to something more like 90%, and the pre deal price was 0.25, the expected value of .9 x 38c + .1 x 25c = 0.365 ish. Maybe it overshoots to 35c but I would think the annualized return would be too juicy not to see more support from the arbs at that price.
Any discussion or any other viewpoints welcome though!