calculations for reminder of year at gold 1425 average gold price q1 1576
voor Q2 we take 1425
net cash flow q1 24,3 milj - 13,6 milj capital makes 10,7 what is terrific !
revenues and costs q2:
so difference of about 150$/ouce multipled by 27000 ouces makes 4milj. less revenue.
we believe cash cost wil be between 650-700 so we calculate 630+50=680 is around 1,3 milj in extra cost in q2
capital spending q2:
for q1 was 13,9 milj reminder of year 37,9 / 3 quaters left=12,6 milj per quater so 1,3 milj less than in q1
so net cash flow for q2 and reminder of yer per quater at gold 1425 (q1 1576) and production at 27000 (q1 27...) and cahs cost at 680 (q1 630)
24,3 milj - 5,3 milj + 1,3 =20,3 milj. - (37,9 / 3 capital) = 7,7 milj net cash flow !
even at worst case senario of gold at 1200 what will bankrupt al lot of gold companies and will drive supply down by a lot so good for the ones that are left over
so worst case senario 1425 to 1200 makes 225 $/ounces difference so per quater
makes 27000*225=6 milj in cash flow and net cash flow
this still leaves the company with net cash flow of 1,7 milj per quarter !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this company is a beauty in compared to 60-80% of the other ones in the sector
earnings prognosis
based on above calculations at 1425/27000/680 earnings will drop with 4 milj in q4
q1 13,6 milj / 231 milj shares makes 0,058 cents so 0,06 cents q1
q2 13,6-4 milj / 231 makes 0,042 cents so 0,04 cents q2
worst case senerio gold at 1200/27000/680
makes 13,6- 4 (drop from 1576 to 1425 and 630 to 680) - 6 (drop from 1425 to 1200) = earnings of 3,6 milj
so 3,6 milj / 231 makes 0,0156 cents ! still earning money
so bottem line for the year
at 1425$ and 680
Q1 6c Q2 4c Q3 4c QQ 4c = 18 cents for 2013 multipled by 10 = 1,8 $ "possible" target price !
at 1425$ and 680 and 1200$ and 680 starting from Q3
Q1 6c Q2 4c Q3 1,5c QQ 1,5c = 13 cents for 2013 multipled by 10 = 1,3 $ "possible" target price !
this company is a steal and should have a rerating !