Bioniche valuation I was a little confused at first about the NR, but I think it will all make sense in a months or so. We have been yelling about unlocking value for years. Well... they are doing it. They are selling a strategic asset and keeping what they think is the motherload (MCC human). They are not a human health company as well all know, but the partners they will be working with this time around will be. They will still maintain Oncocidin (Human) and will finally have funds to run trials. It has revenue potential in the multiple billions, so the market will love that even in phase 1.
Endo paid 1.2B to get 400mm in revenue for Qualitest. Our animal divison should be worth a minimum 3 times our revenue perhaps 4. We have 3 new products that have not entered into the revenue mix yet. So there needs to be a premium added into the valuation. It is not just 32m in revenue someone is acquiring. It is also future revenue. I think the bare minimum bid should be 100mm. That would get us enough to pay out RCP's 20mm plus interest, and leave us with roughly .75 in cash. Dont think for a second Bioniche would sell Animal for 50mm. Not a chance.
We should also be getting partnership offers for Urocidin shortly as well. Companies have now had 6 weeks with phase 3b data to disseminate it. I would think if Bioniche play their cards right, they should get at least 30mm to 40mm up front for NA and the same for EU, and probably 20mm to 25mm for Asia. Spectral got 50mm up front for Asia alone for Apazaquine (another bladder cancer drug) So that could leave us with $1.50 in cash in the next few months. The only debt on the books would be 25mm to the feds and the province, payable out of Econiche revenue if there is any. Things could get very interesting around here early this summer.
If they found something to manufacture out of the VMC, or sold it once it was GMP validated, it would add big value as well. From what I am told somewhere around .60 to .80 with GMP. We could have a company this summer worth $2 a share and that is not including Urocidin itself. There is still a value there. Not sure what that is, but excited to find out.
Graeme will likely be stepping down and a new CEO will be taking over Bioniche Therapeutics. The market will like that. From what I read, any sale of a significant company asset, needs to have shareholder approval. Ironically Graeme refuses to call a meeting, and now he may have to call one.
I think the reason we have 30 suitors for Urocidin and 3 for Animal is directly because of Evercore. These guys don't mess around. I think something should be coming soon. As Zep stated I think they have all but chosen one of the 3. The NR was to let us know it's on its way. Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to get fun!
beech