RE: Expected trend of ATP shares There are a few things to look out for:
1) They are facing class action lawsuits. If these are successful it is light out for Atlantic Power.
2) Their ability to maintain their dividend. If they are able to maintain the dividend it should be stable between 4-6 dollars for a while. If they cut their dividend expect another drop.
3) Atlantic power is has over 2 BILLION dollars in debt on the balance sheet. Atlantic power has taken a net loss in 2010, 2011, 2012. Atlantic power will likely have to raise more money possibly through a dilutive equity issue. Which owuld pretty well gaurentee the end of the dividend.
4) Management has driven this stock from 14$ to 5$. They have issued misleading statements regarding the dividend and use contraversial methods to try and prove dividend sustainablility.
The bottom line there is great risk to investing in common shares of this company and I dont really see much upside given the current management team, past performance and current financial sitation. In the short term (1 year) the share price will largely depend on ATP's ability to become profitable (New Profit) and their ability pay any upcoming debt that becomes due.