Buyout scenario An offer of 100M - 150mm? Possible. A buyout for that? Dont think so. Our poison pill provision allows us to add 50% of our share position at the 5 day average prior to buyout announcement I believe. (It never happens that you actually must come up with the funds) A 150mm offer would effectively turn into 225mm.
Our Animal division alone should be worth 3 times revenue ($32m x 3 = .96/share) plus a premium for Oncocidin, Immunocidin and Sin Susto (that are brand new and not yet producing revenue), should value us well over 100mm. Urocidin was valued by Endo at 140mm 3 years ago with only a phase 2 trial in the books. Add in a GMP certified VMC plant, that it is another 60mm. So $3 / share take away .55 in debt and we still have $2.45 share price.
Now if we sell Animal for $1 a share and partner up (with multiple partners) on Urocidin for another .80 up front money, we have ourselves 1.80 in cash minus debt = 1.25 / share in cash. There is still some value in the VMC (certified) and we still have MCC human and Sin Susto. That probably makes us a 1.75 stock minimum (with a new CEO tack on another .50 at least).
If Urocidin is FDA approved we are a $5 to $7 stock on its own. Sin Susto Human would have tens of millions in revenue potential if not more. An Oncocidin approval with potential revenue in the multiple billions (many years from now) could take us into the billion range in market cap.
Let's hope we can get the best of both worlds and not get squeezed out before the promised land like most Canadian Biotechs. One day very soon (before June 20th), we will be halted and either an offer to buy us out, a partnership for Urocidin or a full buyout of Animal health will be in play. No matter which scenario happens, you are going to wish you owned a lot more stock than you do I suspect. GLTA
beech