Bioniche - 5 possible outcomes. If what Graeme says is true, we have 30 interested parties for Urocidin and 3 signed offers for Animal health, I think there are 5 possible outcomes.
1) Graeme finds the right buyer for Animal and we get enough funds (40mm-60mm after debt) to last us for 3 to 5 years at current burn rate. Shareholders vote to accept offer - Stock goes much higher.
2) Graeme gets several partnerships for Urocidin and we get somewhere in the 70mm to 100mm in up front payments, again allowing us some real breathing room for day to day expenses and starting new trials for MCC human. If both 1 &2 happen, we should have somewhere around 110-160mm in cash after debt. Stock goes exponentially higher.
3) GW gets their meeting prior to the sale of Animal and takes over the BOD. They fire Graeme and lay out their plan of action going forward. The market realizes that Wells taking over our board means there is significant value in our company and sends the stock into an upward trend for some time.
4) June 20th is approaching and Graeme has done nothing to move Animal division or signed any partnership deals. GW has not gotten their meeting and Graeme does a financing for 25mm shares at .30. Market knows that they have at least dodged a short term bullet, but hates the dilution and stays flat. Shortly thereafter the BOD is ousted and Graeme is let go and the market gets giddy about Willam Wells taking over. Then begins a move to much higher levels.
5) June 20th arrives and nothing has been done at all and RCP takes over Urocidin and sells it to the highest bidder. We are handed a cheque for 50mm to 80mm from the proceeds after debt. We then sell the VMC plant along with Econiche and get another 30mm in cash. We now have 85mm (minimum) in cash and an the entire company is cash flow positive. In this scenario GW will take over the entire BOD, and clean house. Graeme will step down as CEO and William Wells will take over the helm. Market will bid us much higher.
The only chance for a sixth outcome, is if Graeme is outright lying or does something illegal with RCP complicit, or the market values our parts, for a fraction of what I am told (by someone much smarter than I) they are worth.
6) June 20th comes and goes without a deal. We run out of money in a few months and declare bankruptcy. RCP takes over Urocidin, sells it to friends for 30mm and we get nothing. (I believe RCP would have to sell it in a bonfide arms length market-value transaction, so more likely 100m to 150mm)
This scenario has infinitesimally small odds, because we have too many assets to go bankrupt and Graeme would lose his $2mm pension and his 8mm shares. I cannot see that happening under any circumstances. Bad CEO... yes. Criminal...no. Graeme willing to retire penny less... no chance!
I like my odds on it being numbers 1-5. If so, buying at these levels will be a huge bargain. GLTA.
beech