RE: Another final Nav estimate good points from you and sanspeine. I think your estimates are quite conservative (reasonable), and sanspeine's tax corrections add to the conversation, however I think it is a long shot to suggest that the Oakville leases will dovetail with another contract (not impossible; just less likely).
Of course, none of this takes into account the very good possibility of a wind contract (likely somewhere else) and the possibility of a positive gm settlement. I have no idea of the likelihood of the gm settlement, but what a gift that would be. Even if they only got 80% of what they are asking for, that would be $1 per share.
Back to what we know, IMO, if no litigation proceeds are received or new contracts obtained, we are looking at a minimum of $2.50. Wind or litigation would be gravy. So the only thing I would be nervous about is a major investment in something totally new that could tank.
But management have squeezed a lot of profit out of complex, exacting, time sensitive work; it's not like someone's lemonade stand wasn't making money, so they are trying their hand at brain surgery. Further, Chris Nutt owns a lot of shares. He stands to lose like us if he squanders the cash.
I think the current $1.50 is crazy.