GREY:SOGAF - Post by User
Comment by
naive_investoron May 24, 2013 2:13pm
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Post# 21437986
RE: Question for the board
RE: Question for the board I don't think 2nd quarter will be great. As per the comapany's Q1 MD&A, the average production at the end of April was 1,400 bbls/day and they had just started to fix things, which may take some time to affect production. We may see some increase in production after the end of this month. The exciting news could be the tying up of the first genset to the Delvina gas field, which will allow them to sell high-value condensate and partially monetize gas. The other news could be announcement of the drilling schedule for the first Delvina well. There are still a lot of operational risks. On the oil side, latest MD &A indicates that they have no issue with the reservoir, and they have infrastructure to produce 2700 bbls/d gross or 2100 bbls/d net, which may require some local operational expertise only. Another 400 bbls/d gross requires additional infrastructure on which they are supposed to be working now. Having said that, considering the low valuation of the co., upside due to any positive operational update is significant. Production of 2,100+ bbls oil + 200 bbl some NGL + 500 mcf gas per day may send this stock to around $1.5 dollars and the company still will have a market cap of only $100 million. Drilling announcement on top of that may shoot this over $2.