SHORT COVERED Between the 30th of April and the 15th of May, the large $13 million plus short position that materialized after financing was announced, was covered. Short volume is currently 150,000. Looking at daily trade volumes, over 14 million shares traded April 30, the same day the NDA submission for Compleo was announced, very likely representing the bulk of short covering.
Short Positions for TRL
| T : TRL |
2013-05-15 |
150,566 |
-13,322,383 |
0.10 |
| T : TRL |
2013-04-30 |
13,472,949 |
10,102,500 |
9.09 |
| T : TRL |
2013-04-15 |
3,370,449 |
1,773,139 |
3.71 |
| T : TRL |
2013-03-31 |
1,597,310 |
1,463,811 |
1.76 |
| T : TRL |
2013-03-15 |
133,499 |
0 |
0.15 |
So where are we now? There was little new information in the last conference call. Management did express enthusiasm re the partnership negotiations and an expectation that terms of an eventual agreement would be similar to the very lucrative terms of Lilly's agreement for Axiron. This makes sense in light of the fact that Compleo does provides a technological breakthrough in Testosterone replacement therapy and this is a multi-billion blockbuster market that continues to grow.
I have yet to get a handle on the significance of the Trivair partnership, future development or timing. I guess we will get more information in due time.
As for Tefina, the target has expanded significantly to include post menopausal women, in response to large demand from this group experienced at trial centers. This second Phase II Trial is relatively large (240 patients) and comprehensive. Trial enrollment has been slower than initially anticipated but can likely move forward more quickly now that Trimel has funds available. Enrollment is approaching the half way point and sometime in the second half of 2013 we will get an early peak at results. What these results will be is almost purely speculative. I say 'almost' because the earlier Phase II Tefina trial generated promising results, the IN delivery of Testosterone has already been proven by the Compleo P3, and levels of Testosterone have been shown to retreat to baseline within 24 hours of Tefina administration, supporting a better safety profile regarding side effects. If interim results are significantly positive, considerable investment excitement will be generated.
While Tefina represents enormous 'blue sky' potential, results are still very speculative and Compleo is the drug investors should focus on. Time is the kicker here. The NDA process takes the time it takes and potential partners may be in no hurry to speed up the negotiation process - to a point. It also takes time to get a marketing strategy in place and be ready to hit the ground running as soon as FDA approval is received.