RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: don't throw mud throw answ Shaw--Let's assume as a talking point, that your estimate of 50/50 odds, regarding the trial outcome, is correct.
So, again assuming you're correct, there is a 50% chance that rpm.v goes way up in price, easily a triple, I figure. In this case, cde would probably sell off a little, but probably not too much. There is also 50%, that rmp.v loses and gets cut in half, with cde rising modestly.
If you have $10,000 to wager on this, you should put $2500 on rpm.v and $7500 on cde. If rpm.v wins, your rpm.v goes up triple, for a gain of $5000, and your cde drops about $1000, for a net gain of $4000.
If Couer wins, rpm.v gets cut in half and you lose $1250, and cde goes up about the same, for a wash.
That's how I'd play it, if I believed your 50/50 estimate. However, I think it is closer to 90/10 in Rye Patch's favor, so I'll stick to being long rpm.v with no cde position.