RE: RE: Some thoughts :):)
Scaldy, I did not write this quote but hopefully you may see the difference between Economics - as an ART form; and not as an established Science. Do you even comprehend the difference between Interpretation and Predictability?
( emphasis mine ) …”I think Anon has it exactly right. These points have not been addressed by anything Adam or Tyler Cohen has said. There is not in fact agreement on models in economics in the same way there is agreement in physics, or engineering, or chemistry. In those physical sciences, whether theoretical or applied, there is agreement not just on the basic variables in the model, but on the numerical coefficients that allow derivation (prediction) of the dependent variable. And there is agreement because there is reliable prediction, with many significant digits of accuracy. And the coefficients don’t change.
In economics, there is not reliable prediction, despite protestations to the contrary. There is not a single economic model with a coefficient that has the status of a constant and can be used to make point predictions. Not one, anywhere. This is not to say that you can’t make decent predictions about matters that involve money or the exchange and production of goods. You can. But you get that from common sense too, and while you can sometimes, for a while, get better predictions from replacing common sense with models, we never identify a model that actually has well-confirmed numerical precision. You might get one significant digit of accuracy, but again, only as long as things continue as they had recently. Then social shifts occur, and the coefficients, as measured statistically, change….” ( JD Halvorson )
My references, to other successful Models of Investment, were examples – NOT recommendations! Everyone chooses what they are good at. My thought was that we shouldn’t disparage someone because they use a different method (for success) than we would! (THAT was : " the Lesson! ")
Are you really that vain; or were you just rhetorically thumping your own shallow drum (again)??