Petro Rio S.A. HRTPF

RE: Probabilities

[DrillaHill]

...same numbers with your calculator:

 

Probability of event A	23,4	:1ppm:2:5:10% (:100):1 against
Probability of event B	21,15	:1ppm:2:5:10% (:100):1 against
Probability of event C	18	:1ppm:2:5:10% (:100):1 against
Chance of all happening	0.869400	:1ppm:2:5:10% (:100):1 against
Chance of none happening	49.8806	:1ppm:2:5:10% (:100):1 against
Chance of at least one happening	50.1194	:1ppm:2:5:10% (:100):1 against
Chance of exactly one happening	39.1082	:1ppm:2:5:10% (:100):1 against

 

- with Murombe, Baobab or Sivaradi

 

obviously the P90 volumes have the greater probability, and they are still huge with murombe near to a billion boe

 

Baobab COS 26% P90 23,4%
Murombe COS 23,5% P90 21,15%

Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab or Murombe

1- (0,766*0,7885) = 39,6%

 

(Assumed Baobab possible volumes equal to D&M Wingat estimation)

Baobab P90 oil success=277 mmbo x $7/bbl x 86% ownership / 657 fully diluted shares = $2,54/share

+480% from yesterdays closing price

Murombe P90 oil success = 996 mmbo x $7/bbl x 86% ownership / 657 FD shares = $9,12/share

+1821% from yesterdays closing price

 

+ if we include Sivaradi with a COS (which we don't know) of let's say 20% P90 18%

Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab, Murombe or Sivaradi

1- (0,766*0,7885*0,82) = 50,5%

 

GLA :)

 

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