Charting the flag Classic flag pattern in RMP.
Nice sharp bounce with prolonged consolidation in rectangular flag. The $4.10 sharp bounce on strong volume to $4.31 and retesting today of the bouncing point are pivotal for future price direction. With the flag pattern coming to a conclusion this week next week will give direction for RMP if one were to be purely a chartist it would signify a sharp bounce to the previous yearly high of $4.74. On the other hand it could signify next week that a reversal will be coming in stock price.
My take on the whole scenario is uptrend will be coming next week as the fundamentals are all in place for a sustained uptick in price. I'm pretty positive RMP is searching out new lands to acquire at a reasonable price on the pipeline path from Ante Creek to Waskahigan (which is direct tied into Pembina and Alliance pipelines). Thus RMP has upgraded Ante Creek battery yet again to go from 5mmcf/d gas to 23 mmcf/d gas and from 6,000 boe/d to 10,000 boe/d. This will have to be done on freeze up this winter and they should have the pipeline and battery up and running by the end of Feb 2014. So to emphasize it's akin to a child and we're at the gestation period. By year end and into early 2014 RMP stock price should be a lot higher than the current trading levels. Of course were world oil prices to fall drastically and the economy go into the crapper that wouldn't be true but all indications are this shouldn't happen. Cash flow should come in bounces and if they can get a deal to alleviate the solution gas from shut in Ante Creek wells for the short term until delivery of the baby in 8 months a sharp bounce in price would come yet again. I'm thinking they may be close to a deal to alleviate solution gas until they have the battery up and running (may be possible sooner rather than later).
Ante Creek wells are 200m shallower than Waskahigan and thus cheaper to drill while continuing to demonstrate high productivity with the likely possibility of the Coquina stretching to envelope new lands to the SE. The high permeability and porosity at Ante Creek due to the Coquina allows for cheaper frac's also so cheaper well's with higher sustained productivity coming at an expanded pace next year. Also the reserve engineer's booked 380,000 barrels per Ante Creek well and the first drilled well is now approaching 200,000 barrels after only 5 months on production with no signs of a decrease in producition volumes. Thus at year end all these Ante Creek reserves already book will have to be evaluated upwards along with the new bookings coming with expanded drilling. By year end RMP will have another 7 months of production on the first Ante Creek approaching 200,000 barrels so it will be tricky to estimate the exact reserves per well but suffice to say they will have to be booked dramatically higher than the current booking of 380,000 barrels per well.
I don't invest on charting but do take that into account on adding or withdrawing positions.
GLA...