RE: RE: DXE & NFK share price appreciation? Great post Franjo. We live in interesting times ... a harbinger I'm afraid, of what comes this way. We do not have free trading, transparent markets anymore and small retailers are mere fodder for the movers and shakers. The brokers have loaned everyone's margin account shares out and they have probably been leveraged tenfold by MM's, other brokers, hedgies etc. The HFT’s can trade your shares by 1000 times before your buy/sell actualizes … making fractions of pennies doing so. Naked shorts (the selling of counterfeit shares) even though illegal, are just part of the markets now and beyond punishment. In the gold and silver markets for instance, product that does not exist is being traded in huge volume. It goes on and on and there is little point distracting from matter at hand, namely NFK and DXE.
So, the reason I never put too much into any one stock now is because of the very fact that we small investors are totally at the mercy of other factors and must try to anticipate what those at the top of the feed chain are up to. Hard to do since things can change so quickly and global events can happen at warp speed. Not an easy task and those successful are in the minority, no matter what the short term traders post who, long term, are only successful 5% of the time. I also no longer post on chat sites of juniors/seniors wherein I have my largest investments. That, for sure, is asking for trouble. In fact, I have cut down drastically on posting anywhere except maybe on solid chat sites … and often not on Stockhouse.
Our real intent is to invest in a stock that proves up the goods, which in the case of an ‘NFK/DXE’ would be a producing reservoir of multimillions of barrels of light crude with quick, cheap access to market. We won’t know that until the drill bit speaks … and that will trump any of the above mentioned shenanigans whether they are top of the chain or shorts or day traders.
Predictions by various posters here vary and there are the optimists as well as the naysayers. COS (chance of success) has been estimated from 80% to the relatively average 30% range (although some say 30% is as high as you can dare guess). All are opinions based on anything from personal conviction (or self-serving motivation) to objective, knowledge based hypothesis. We all have our favorites, I’m sure.
The one undeniable factor is the success or not, at terminal depth. So, it does not matter whether you bought in at 10 cents or 20 cents if the well is successful. It will definitely be a multiple of today’s price and a penny here or there won’t matter… except for the day/short term flippers. However, as we all hope, if pay dirt is substantial the further upside from there is rather compelling because of the potential blue sky potential of the other two larger targets. That might well bring Shell or others into the game to offer a nice buyout. If so, being long is being well positioned on established profit. Of course this is all conjecture so between now and then it behooves the con artists and carnival barkers to attempt to separate you from your money by whatever multiple means possible, up or down.
As for now, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT LIES AT THE BOTTOM, AT TD… no matter what they espouse. Neither fear mongering or pumping has any bearing whatsoever on the outcome, except attempting to make a gain from someone else before results. Reasoning by factual deduction and the citing of comparable, historical precedents tempered with the knowledge of credible, geological expertise and experience are worthy of serious consideration. From what I’ve seen so far, from SEDAR, news releases, about management caliber, from company presentations, personal recommendations from some qualified and sophisticated investors and analysts, resource property information and some excellent posts here I like the odds. All of the above is just my opinion.
I don’t think the stock price means anything between now and TD. It can be manipulated in any direction without any substance. Whatever your position, 30% to 80%, good luck to all.