RE: Big A Has It RIGHT DEBT DEBT Quick thought on the HRT issue: If you read the financials of HRT they say very little about the suit. HRT has no comments on vigorously trying to defend, think the suit has no merit, etc. HRT has determined the loss as "possible" based on IFRS. I don't know the percent basis of what "possible" implies, but surely higher than unlikely, so maybe a 50%+ chance. Tuscany on the other hand uses more aggressive stance, so it sounds like they are working hard to win this suit.
If Tuscany wins, they will have around 20M after tax for debt reduction. Factor in 20M per Q in EBITDA for next 3Qs and working through a cash flow measure EBITDA*(1-t)+(Dep*t)-Capex-WC, then Tuscany should have a shortfall of ~$34M. Granted, the 20M per Q is based on 95% utilization per Q1 2012 numbers, but it gives you a feel for where the company falls in terms of coming up short on debt. So let's say between 30M & 50M short.
With a few additional Qs (say 6 or 8 versus 3) this would be manageable if the company keeps high utilization rates. Add in a few asset sales, a JV, or a slight restructure and TID should be fine. Dawson certainly has some work to do in the short term.