RE: What are the chances?Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab
Baobab COS 26% P90 23,4%
Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Murombe
Murombe COS 23,5% P90 21,15%
Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab or Murombe
1- (0,766*0,7885) = P90 39,6%
Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab and Murombe
0,234*0,2115 = P90 5%
+ if we include Sivaradi with a COS (which we don't know) of let's say 20% P90 18%
Chance of Success to find hydrocarbons (P90) in Baobab, Murombe or Sivaradi
1- (0,766*0,7885*0,82) = P9050,5%
Calculator https://www.calctool.org/CALC/math/probability/3_events
GLA