RE: RE: RE: TID and SA: Bullish article Veronika,
I welcome a detailed breakdown of your EBITDA analysis into cash flows for the next 4 quarters, an analysis of the debt coming due, and a tie in for cash flows and debt pay down. Going back and forth on this board with no concrete numbers to back up our arguments adds no value to readers. I will post mine here this weekend and hope you do so as well. I am always looking for flaws in my analysis so hopefully you can provide some.
The SA author also does not provide many details as to why TID a potential "100". He just seems to claim that with increased utilization rates the company will improve so much that it can double. Nor does he analyze the debt burden and explain whether the company has debt problems. Everyone knows the company is overburdened with debt. Management talks about, message board members talk about it, there seems to be an overarching discussion about asset sales and collecting on the HRT liability to reduce debt. The most recent annual info form specifically states going concern issues. as a result of financing and collecting on the HRT suit. Why so much about debt and going concern problems if all TID needs is to increase UT?
I am familiar with XDC. Management diluted shareholders at the lowest price possible. The bought deal served as a life preserver to a sinking ship. Congratulations that management used a bought deal to create an additional dollar or two in shareholder value during that time. Back track a few more years and the picture is much different. As I said in my previous post, a bought deal indicates that Dawson failed at strategy. If he does one its likely because that was TID's only hope. He couldn't sell enough assets, collect on the HRT, refinance correctly, etc, so he had no option but to get a bought deal done and use it to pay down debt. If he must do a bought deal to avoid BK, fine, but to me this indicates somewhere along the road mismanagement occurred and now shareholders pay the price.
Please provide a cash flow break down and debt reduction assumptions. I am very interested to see where my calculations are incorrect and how you are determining these metrics. I will do the same so you can see my assumptions and hopefully you can provide feed back.