Am I Crazy or is SBB a No-Brainer? I've had my eye on Sabina since TMF Sinchiruna hyped it as his #1 gold pick back in December. (Seems like ages ago, doesn't it?...) Was looking for a price below $2 but now that it's selling at near cash value, it seems to me that the market is making a number of unreasonably pessimistic assumptions about the company:
1. Xstrata will not develop Hackett River, and therefore Sabina's $300M+ silver royalty is worthless. (On the contrary, Hackett seems to be a key asset in the Glencore/Xstrata merger, and the project is moving forward in anticipation of much higher zinc and silver prices by the time it comes online in 2017 or later.)
2. Depressed gold prices will make developing Back River uneconomic. (On the contrary, with relatively high grades and a major open pit component, the PEA indicates the project will be feasible even at $1250 gold, and the PoG is highly unlikely to remain that low all the way through 2017.)
3. Sabina will be unable to raise the $450M pre-production capital required even if a mine proves feasible. (Challenging in this environment, but far from insurmountable. Apart from self-financing via the silver royalty, there is potential for extending the partnership with Xstrata or SLW, partnering with a major or a streamer like SSL, or the PoG or share price rising enough to warrant raising the money through other means.)
4. In addition, of course, there are issues relating to the remote location, lack of infrastructure and permitting. (IMO, these are overstated: infrastructure is coming, and native opposition appears to be minimal. In any case, the Far North is rapidly warming up, both literally and figuratively, as evidenced by other mines already operating in the region. Despite the political uncertainty, money talks, and Nunavit still ranks relatively high on the Fraser list.)
A reasonable worst case scenario seems to be that SBB is dead money for a few years, or at least until Xstrata commits one way or the other to Hackett River. Based on the example of Rainy River, there also seems a high potential for a buyout by a major in the interim, but it seems likely that even a modest premium would ensure at least a break-even buying at the curent price. (Even moreso if it drops to the 40s, as suggested by some on this board.) OTOH, the upside potential from here is huge, even if the sp just gets back to pre-crash levels.
What do long-suffering veteran SBB investors think of this rough take on SBB's prospects? Please shoot some holes in my analysis if you are more pessimistic!...I'm seriously considering taking a small position, buying in tranches between now and the bankable feasibilty study....TIA, z.