The value here will be realized.... one way or another.I increased my position here today considerably in Ithaca under $1.80 as I feel this price represents very good value now that the buyout transaction has been cleared and as the markets go through the summer doldrums..... I do not think we will see much more downside from here no matter where the markets go ex Brent oil price which is holding up well.
The company is choosing to build a cashflow monster by re-investing cashflow in capex (including Stella) which they intend to sell for probably between $4-$6 in 18-24 months time. I am quite sure that Ithaca which has turned down 2 waves of takeover offers (sometimes people forget about the one before the financial crisis) want to sell this company for more than $4.00 per share. Oilmen egoes somewhat ensure that they won't except less than the previous offer.
Alice Tsang and other analysts probably do not want to stick their necks out there or they have just gotten use to the "new norm" of sub $2.00 trading levels. The company could scrap developing Stella (sell it "as is"), pay down debt over the next 12 months and sell the company for $2.50 (40% premium) but that means forgoing millions of dollars in stock option value.
The good news is that money is cheap right now.... just have to be patient for the plan to unfold. A better stock price is all but assured to return in the fall.