GREY:LSTMF - Post by User
Comment by
JohnDDon Jul 06, 2013 3:01pm
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Post# 21592481
RE:Correction
RE:CorrectionFrom LTS's Q1 report, Edmonton Par was $88.91. So Q2 revenues are up 4.1% (92.50/88.91) over Q1. This is not exactly right since one needs to consider price changes for gas and NGLs too.
Assuming average production for Q2 is 45,500 boe/d, that is represents a decrease of 3,578 Boe/d from 49,078 in Q1. This respresents a 7.3% decrease - net this out and your impact on gross revenues is a reduction of approximately 3.2%.
I don't think you can apply the 3.2% reduction to determine the impact on CFPS, but lets have some fun and see what the numbers come out to be. Q1 CFPS = $.92, apply a 3.2% reduction and that tranlates to a Q2 CFPS of $.89. Lots of rough assumptions went into this. My gut tells me Q2 CFPS will be a bit lower, but could be higher than what analysts are predicting a few months ago? We will know in about a month.
John